Intra-country migration processes that are caused by climate shocks are not expected to be heading towards big cities, as before.
The word “immigration” in the 21st century has been attributed to migration between countries, rather than as an internal migration. But the current situation in the world is characterized by the fact that inland migration is highlighted as a result of natural disasters. In 2006, British economist Nicholas Stern warned that one of the greatest dangers of climate change would be massive and unrestrained immigration. What is happening now, with the emergence of clear indications of climate change (such as rising floods and the occurrence of long-term droughts), is that people will be moving in the near future. These migrations may not be far away, but a way to deal with the climate threats that populated areas of the world face.
What will these migrations bring with themselves? Stern wrote in his book that the shock caused by these changes in the past has led to violent conflicts and its great danger in many areas, such as West Africa, the Nile and Central Asia, is very serious. Now that more than a decade is anticipated, the world is still looking for patterns that will show how people will emigrate and when will most migrations come from.
Last year, a World Bank report, which first examined the issue of immigration for climate change on a wider scale. The report states that 143 million people in South Asia, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa will have to migrate to climate change by 2050.
Can we trust such a figure? The makers of this model, like any other model, have hypothesized, for example, that the reaction of people to climate change has been assumed to be similar to the reaction of people in ancient times. However, the patterns of prediction in this regard are improving and, for example, can indicate that the increase in sea levels or long-term droughts will cause the migration of people. However, there are many unknown factors in the work.
Developers of climate change-induced migration patterns are trying to monitor large-scale population movements through advanced technologies. Walligry Muller, an economist at the State University of Arizona, who worked on the issue of climate change, said: “Satellite and mobile technologies help to gradually move people geographically. But the satellite-gathered information can not look at cases like birth or death in the course of people’s movement. ” Therefore, the limitations of technological findings are also high.
However, improving the prediction of these patterns is important for the future of the world, because if governments know where people can migrate, there will be more preparedness for this. For example, in the event of a major climatic shock, a small town that has economic potential for many reasons, it can attract many immigrants. In fact, the migration process is not supposed to be towards the big cities as it is, because migrants from climate shocks may not necessarily have similar goals with other immigrants. Also, if it can be predicted to some extent that climate change migration occurs, local governments will be able to attract investment in the housing sector and build a hospital and school to facilitate it.
“We will never be able to obtain accurate statistics on climate-induced immigration,” said Alex Dougherbinein of Columbia University. But if governments and people understand exactly what the prediction pattern is about, then information will gradually be gained and will pave the way for better prediction. “
Some of the predictions about climate-induced immigration within countries are as follows: In Mexico, by 2050 climate change is expected to cause 1.7 million people to immigrate. The dry areas of the North and parts of southern Mexico are subject to drought, flooding, and floods, and their situation will not be comparable with the central regions of Mexico City. It is therefore clear that the movement of people from the areas mentioned above will increase to the central urban areas. Port workers, as well as farmers from areas such as Veracruz and Tabasco, may also be looking for new jobs to migrate to urban areas.
The researchers also expect the 13.3 million Bangladeshs to become migrants due to climate shock by 2050. That would amount to nearly eight percent of the potential population of Bangladesh by then. The most likely Bangladeshi migrants will be rice farmers who will migrate to the Ganges. Since the region is already densely populated, migrants are expected to face many problems in finding work and shelter.
In Ethiopia, things are not good too. Even if moderate climatic changes occur, Ethiopia will face a huge shortage of water. This problem will cause 1.5 million Ethiopian people to be forced to immigrate by 2050. The population is likely to move from the northern part of the country and Addis Ababa to the southern and mountainous regions. Addis Ababa is located in the center of Ethiopia’s agricultural region, and reducing crop yields due to dehydration will cause a lot of migration from other areas of the city that have experienced economic development.